« The Crimson Hexagon: Books Borges Never Wrote | Main | Musikdelning mellan kolleger: sociala avigsidor och möjligheter »
maj 18, 2005
Komplex-nätverksanalys av röstningar i Eurovision Song Contest
How does Europe 'Make Its Mind Up'? Connections, cliques, and compatibility between countries in the Eurovision Song Contest, av Daniel Fenn, Omer Suleman, Janet Efstathiou, Neil F. Johnson, är en komplex-nätverksanalys av röstbeteendet i Eurovision Song Contest.
Abstract
We investigate the complex relationships between countries in the Eurovision Song Contest, by recasting past voting data in terms of a dynamical network. Despite the British tendency to feel distant from Europe, our analysis shows that the U.K. is remarkably compatible, or 'in tune', with other European countries. Equally surprising is our finding that some other core countries, most notably France, are significantly 'out of tune' with the rest of Europe. In addition, our analysis enables us to confirm a widely-held belief that there are unofficial cliques of countries -- however these cliques are not always the expected ones, nor can their existence be explained solely on the grounds of geographical proximity. The complexity in this system emerges via the group 'self-assessment' process, and in the absence of any central controller. One might therefore speculate that such complexity is representative of many real-world situations in which groups of 'agents' establish their own inter-relationships and hence ultimately decide their own fate. Possible examples include groups of individuals, societies, political groups or even governments.
Introducerande artikel till studien
Plus Magazine-artikeln United Kingdom - twelve points skriver introducerande om studien:
The European Song Contest is a perfect example of what mathematicians call a complex system. This consists of a group of objects (countries) which interact with each other (by giving each other points for their songs), and this interaction can be tracked over time. A statistical analysis of the system can then give some insight in the nature of the interaction. For example, it can show whether certain countries form cliques that always vote similarly, or whether a country's voting is largely "in tune" with that of the whole group.
...
One such test, which the scientists say is new, involves seeing whether voting relationships between countries persists over time. If, for example, country A gives and/or receives points from another country B over a long period of time, then we can deduce that in some way the musical tastes of the two countries are related. Carrying out the same analysis between country A and all other countries in turn will show whether or not country A is "in tune" with the rest of Europe.
Slutsatsen beskrivs på följande sätt:
And the results of the study? [...] [I]t is the UK that seems largely in tune with the rest of Europe, while France stands slightly askew. France's isolation is expressed further by the fact that it does not belong to any of the cliques identified by the study. These include the usual suspects, such as Greece and Cyprus, the UK and Ireland, and the Nordic countries, but also more surprising pairings such as Croatia and Malta, which are not geographically close.
Sverige, då?
Hur är det då med Sverige? T.ex. finns det en - inte speciellt förvånande - stark röstkorrelation mellan Sverige och Danmark; endast Cypern-Grekland har ett starkare band. Sedan klustrar vi med - i ordning - Island, Estland (!), Norge och Finland (se vidare dendogrammet på sid 7, figur 5).
Se även
Memetisk analys av röstningar i Schlagerfestivalen som beskriver en annan undersökning av Eurovision Song Contest utifrån röstningarna.
Uppdatering
På Crooked Timber skrivs mer om undersökningen. Isolated social networkers är kritisk till fysiker som uppfinner social nätverksanalys på nytt, och det finns en intressant bild av citeringar av forskningen inom sociala nätverk resp. social nätverksanalys som visar en stor isolering mellan de två områdena. Man hänvisar även till Kieran Healy som gjorde en liknande undersökning kring Eurovison Song Contest för ett år sedan: Torture of a different kind.
Uppdatering 2
Några fler som skrivit om detta.
Philip Ball i Nature: Physicists uncover Eurovision biases
Cosma Shalizi (bloggen Three-Toed Sloth): Networks and Netwars
Posted by hakank at maj 18, 2005 06:05 EM Posted to Social Network Analysis/Complex Networks